"The Cheapest Way to Reduce Climate Impact is to Work with Nature"

Igor Akhmerov, CEO of AIM Carbon, discusses the results of unique research by the company and Russian scientists that could lay the foundation for creating scientifically-based, scalable nature-like projects capable of sequestering carbon over large areas through controlled animal grazing. These projects aim not only to offer quality Russian emission reduction units to foreign buyers and foster the emergence of a national carbon market but also to help solve socio-economic problems in the regions where they operate.

What is the essence and uniqueness of the first phase of the research by the company and scientists to preserve permafrost in Yakutia? How did it all begin?

- We have successfully conducted two categories of experiments. In the first, we measured the carbon content in the soil. In the second, we measured the reflectivity of the sites, known as albedo. 90% of our efforts were focused on the first experiment because the carbon content in the soil is the proof that the carbon project works. Everything else is a contributing factor.
If we talk about details, initially, we did extensive research on the literature related to solving the problem of permafrost melting, which is not extensively documented. We then identified three main hypotheses on why controlled grazing in the Arctic could lead to changes in greenhouse gas emissions due to various factors. We tested these hypotheses in two selected farms: the Aleko-Kuel horse farm in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Pleistocene Park. We carefully selected grazing and control sites to ensure they were comparable, with only one changing factor. By comparing soil samples from both sites, we confirmed that grazing fundamentally improves soil carbon content.

Why did you choose these specific sites for the scientific experiment?

- We have historically established relationships with the government of the republic. Moreover, permafrost varies greatly across regions, and we aimed to work with relatively homogeneous landscapes.

What challenges did you face?

- We have a strong, cohesive team, so human factors were not an issue. However, logistical challenges were significant, as every movement in these regions depends heavily on navigation timings, types of delivery, and weather conditions. The cost of the same expedition can vary greatly depending on whether it involves a helicopter or not.

What are the next steps for the project and the possibilities of scaling its results?

- The first step is to develop a methodology based on the obtained results. We have already approached the Institute of Global Climate and Ecology named after Academician Yu. A. Izrael, the leading developer of methodologies for the Russian market. This will be a methodology for using controlled animal grazing to obtain carbon units, based on an existing international industry methodology. We plan to register this methodology in Russia and start implementing a project to obtain valuable Russian carbon units.

Another direction is to conduct similar experiments in other regions, with different types of permafrost and animals. For example, in Yakutia, there are 200,000 horses, whereas on the Yamal Peninsula, there are 800,000 reindeer. Overgrazing is a potential issue there, where too many animals can cause damage, accelerate thawing, and degrade vegetation. Therefore, our next methodological request will be an experiment in Yamal. We are discussing this with partners who are based in Yamal. Implementing animals into an ecosystem is easier than removing them, which involves changing human activities and is always more complex.

You mentioned the need for immediate implementation of a commercial climate project in Yakutia. What are its parameters and funding sources in the absence of a national carbon market?

- There is no rush. One of the requirements is to do it right. In any climate project, if we start now, the results will be visible in two years. It's difficult to predict the state of the Russian carbon unit market and the position of the Russian Federation regarding Articles 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris Agreement in two years. However, if we start today, we will have a product that we hope will be in demand. We are in contact with the republic's leadership, selecting one or two farms for the experiment. We will start small, with 500 hectares and 500,000 animals, and see how it develops. The focus is more on management than science—building the function of controlled grazing. We will see how our African colleagues work with this and develop a scalable technology. Additionally, our company follows three main principles: scalability, high quality, and positive socio-economic impact for the local population.

Have you made any preliminary financial and economic assessments of the project?

- Today, the accumulation of greenhouse gases is about two tons per hectare, with project costs ranging from $3 to $7 per ton of un-emitted greenhouse gases. Two tons per hectare is not much, but in Africa, for example, they operate on 100,000 hectares of historically grazed land, which is why it costs that much due to numerous conflicts over land use. We anticipate different numbers for carbon accumulation per hectare, targeting projects with at least 10 tons per hectare per year, aiming for $15 per ton. We believe that such projects will be traded at a premium and will meet all quality standards.

Are there any difficulties in implementing climate projects?

- The main obstacle is that such projects are hard to certify because there are not enough organizations in Russia to handle this compared to the rest of the world. There are two major certifiers, currently represented in Russia through Indian-Chinese licensees. A bigger problem is the lack of infrastructure. If there were a carbon market in Russia, more diverse certifying, scientific, and other structures would emerge. We are engaged in scientific discussions and our strategy is simple. We will write a high-quality methodology for the Russian market, aim for public discussion, and submit it to interested organizations for mutual recognition.

There is traditionally a lot of skepticism about the forms of innovative climate financing proposed by the Paris Agreement. Do you consider this skepticism unfounded?

Historically, skepticism is common. When I was involved in creating the green energy market in Russia in 2012, there was much skepticism: we are an oil country, with nine months of winter, what solar energy? Yet, large companies were built on solar energy, and now it's part of Russia's energy strategy. The same happened with wind energy.

The world is going through a skeptical period. The Paris Agreement is new and has only been around for eight years, but look at the progress made. We believe this market will have a long and complex journey, but it will develop because we cannot ignore the physical basis of accumulating CO2 in the atmosphere and its impact on climate. The cheapest way to fight this is by working with nature rather than radically changing industries.

Can you provide examples of advanced projects that have been successful for the climate, people, and investors?

I can name two examples. One is solar energy and how renewable energy has changed Europe's energy map. Another interesting story is the distribution of free eco-friendly stoves in Africa. Deforestation occurs partly because people use bricks for cooking, which leads to deforestation and health issues from soot. Distributing eco-friendly stoves in Africa is a huge step forward.

What are the prospects for a developed greenhouse gas emissions reduction market in Russia?

- There is no single universal solution under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement due to numerous conflicting interests. Does this prevent countries from signing bilateral agreements and implementing them? No. Countries like Singapore, Switzerland, Sweden, Korea, and Japan are signing agreements and directly obtaining units from African markets. Such processes will drive the market forward. For example, from 2027, airlines will be required to offset their carbon footprint. Russian airlines flying abroad will have to comply, and foreign airlines flying to Russia may be required to buy local units. This will create a market supplied by Russia.
Whether we like it or not, cross-border carbon regulation is emerging everywhere. The EU has introduced it, and China, Turkey, and other key Russian trading partners are following suit. Eventually, forest climate projects will be included in the carbon market.