Climate Change: How Rising Temperatures Threaten Agriculture in Northern Countries

In scientific literature, it is frequently stated that global warming in northern countries will positively impact agriculture. However, this is not entirely accurate. Temperature increases in regions previously unsuitable for cereal cultivation will inevitably result in warming in areas where optimal agricultural conditions previously existed. These regions will become significantly hotter, making the cultivation of customary vegetables and fruits, grown for centuries, problematic or even impossible.

For example, sales volumes of stone fruits, especially cherries and sweet cherries, which require cool days to ripen, could soon significantly decrease. The reason is global warming, as even a few anomalously warm consecutive days can considerably reduce pollination chances and, consequently, fruit ripening. Unexpected frosts, another undesirable consequence of climate change, can cause even greater damage. For instance, late frosts in 2012 destroyed 90% of Michigan's cherry harvest in the United States.

The climate crisis in Africa threatens maize and cocoa production.

According to specialists from the World Food Organization, after 2030, many regions globally will see a decline in agricultural productivity due to climate change. The most pronounced negative effects are expected in tropical latitudes, where there is an increased risk of further reductions in precipitation.

In African countries located in tropical zones, ensuring food security will be a key task in the coming years as droughts become increasingly intense, floods more frequent, and rainfall patterns unstable. According to forecasts by experts from the World Bank, with global warming of 1.5–2°C and reduced rainfall volumes by 2030-2040, areas suitable for cultivating maize, millet, and sorghum may decrease by 40–80%.

It is important to remember that agriculture provides livelihoods for one-third of all employed people worldwide. In several Asian and African countries, more than half of the population is employed in agriculture!

Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme heat in regions accounting for 70% of the world's cocoa production. Analysis conducted by Climate Central shows that over the past decade, key cocoa cultivation zones have seen an increase of approximately three weeks in the number of days exceeding 32°C. In 2023, there were 42 such days. The problem is especially severe in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, leading producers of cocoa beans. Prolonged heat negatively impacts crop volumes and quality, causing cocoa prices to rise.

In addition to high temperatures, researchers note other risks for cocoa farmers: moisture shortages, plant disease spread, unstable rainfall patterns, and illegal export of products. Between July 2022 and February 2024, cocoa bean prices increased by 136%. One of the reasons for this spike was anomalous weather events in West African countries. If current climate trends persist, the chocolate industry will face serious challenges.

Global warming threatens coffee market stability.

Coffee, as a plant, is extremely sensitive to climatic conditions. Changing climates directly impact its cultivation, raising concerns about the future availability of this popular beverage. In 2024, coffee prices reached their highest levels in thirteen years. According to Bloomberg, the market price of Arabica reached its highest point since 2011. Rising coffee futures are driven by fears of an impending shortage. Industry experts are concerned about potential declines in production volumes in Brazil, a key Arabica supplier, due to the adverse effects of abnormal heat and drought on coffee plantations.

The so-called "coffee belt", comprising around seventy countries, is the primary coffee-growing region. Leading producers include Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The coffee industry employs over 125 million people, with global turnover exceeding 19 billion dollars. However, scientific forecasts indicate that by mid-century, areas suitable for coffee cultivation could halve. Current rates of climate change could further reduce production areas in key regions such as Brazil and Vietnam. Conversely, some areas of East Africa and Asia might become more suitable for coffee cultivation.

Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns also create favorable conditions for pests and diseases affecting agricultural crops. Insects and pathogens, previously restricted by cooler climates, can now expand their range, significantly damaging crops. Farmers face the need to use more pesticides and plant protection products, negatively affecting the environment and human health. Additionally, combating new pests and diseases requires additional costs and efforts, increasing production costs and reducing agricultural profitability.

Technology and resilience: the future of agriculture in a changing climate

Adapting to climate change is becoming an increasingly critical task for agriculture. Farmers and scientists are developing new methods and technologies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate on yields and product quality. These include using resilient crop varieties, employing soil moisture conservation methods, and improving irrigation and plant protection systems. Furthermore, it is necessary to develop agricultural risk insurance to help farmers manage losses caused by extreme weather events.