The current year has become a turning point in terms of global carbon market prospects. After a period of turbulence in 2022–2024, the carbon market has undergone significant restructuring, and buyers have returned. According to preliminary data, more than 300 million carbon units (CUs) were issued across seven leading registries and six national emissions trading systems (ETS), while more than 250 million CUs were sold (retired). Approximately two-thirds of these volumes were transacted on the voluntary market, with the remainder coming from national regulated markets (emissions trading systems).
Demand in regulated markets is growing rapidly and may surpass the voluntary market by 2030. The CORSIA market is also developing quickly. Demand under CORSIA is expected to reach 150–180 million CUs per year by 2030. Demand under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement is also expanding rapidly. Dozens of countries have already signed agreements to implement cooperative approaches, with Singapore and Japan leading the way. By 2030, the global carbon market could at least triple in size compared to 2025.
Unlike the period prior to 2022, buyers of carbon units are now seeking high-quality carbon credits. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) has developed quality criteria for registries and methodologies. Many leading registries and methodologies have already been approved under the Core Carbon Principles (CCP)—ten fundamental, science-based principles designed to identify high-quality carbon credits that deliver real, measurable, and verifiable climate impact.
The CORSIA program has also introduced quality requirements for carbon units, methodologies, and registries. To date, seven carbon credit registries and a limited number of methodologies have been accredited under CORSIA. Even more stringent quality requirements have been introduced within Policies, Agreements, Cooperation, and Mechanisms (PACM) under carbon regulation, particularly under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement.
Five to seven years ago, the market was dominated by carbon units from technological projects, such as energy efficiency improvements, methane and associated gas utilization, fuel switching from gas to coal, and similar initiatives. Today, more than 40% of the market consists of nature-based climate projects; 30% comes from clean cooking projects; and no more than 30% is attributable to renewable energy, waste management, and other technological solutions.
This shift is driven by the fact that, as carbon regulation develops, projects in the energy and industrial sectors lose their additionality, as they become financially viable without carbon finance. In contrast, nature-based projects and clean cooking solutions retain long-term additionality, which is particularly important for investors.
The Conference of the Parties (COP30) on climate, held in November 2025, became the most significant event of the year. It concluded with a compromise: an adaptation mechanism was approved, while the phase-out of fossil fuels was postponed. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) was heavily criticized during the conference, sparking intense debate.
Thanks to the active position of China, India, Russia, and other countries, the conference decision included language stating the inadmissibility of using climate measures, including unilateral ones, as tools of discrimination or hidden restrictions in international trade. Nevertheless, the European Union remains committed to its original position and plans to launch CBAM on January 1, 2026.
Against the backdrop of heated discussions on key climate policy issues, the development of the carbon market remained relatively stable. A dialogue on ambition under Article 6.2 was launched; progress was made on Article 6.4 project mechanisms under the Paris Agreement; the EU announced an increase in demand for carbon credits to 700 million tonnes by 2040; and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) revised upward its demand forecast for carbon units under CORSIA.
Carbon credits are becoming increasingly institutionalized and are gaining popularity on regulated markets. In particular, the EU has announced the use of credits within its emissions trading system.
Leaders of the European Union have reached an interim agreement that, when achieving the EU’s future 2040 climate target—which has yet to be finalized—international carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement may be used. At the level of individual EU member states, support for the use of carbon units from nature-based climate projects, especially carbon removal projects, continues to strengthen.
China is also demonstrating its intention to conclude agreements for the import of international carbon units under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement. This is driven by the rapid expansion of China’s emissions trading system and the inability to meet ETS demand solely through domestic carbon units.
AIM Carbon operates in line with global trends. We develop projects that fully comply with CORSIA requirements and are potentially suitable for international cooperation under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement. We focus on the exceptional quality of our carbon units, and our projects meet all quality criteria for carbon credits.
We congratulate our partners on the arrival of 2026 and look forward to continued cooperation in the New Year!
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